NOAA Predicts Below‑Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Amid Strong El Niño Conditions

NOAA predicts below‑normal Atlantic hurricane season for 2026, citing strong El Niño conditions that suppress tropical cyclone formation. The agency expects fewer named storms and a lower chance of major hurricanes compared with the average season.

El Niño has already crossed a major temperature threshold in the Pacific, a factor NOAA says will increase wind shear over the Atlantic, further limiting storm development. Scientists note the anomaly is the strongest since 2015.

Climate Central reports that despite the quieter hurricane outlook, the United States has already recorded multiple billion‑dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026, underscoring that severe weather impacts remain significant even in a below‑normal hurricane year.

National Weather Service notes a very active start to the 2026 severe weather season, with above‑average tornado reports across the central United States in March and April, indicating that reduced hurricane activity does not lessen overall severe weather risk.