India Faces Below‑Normal Monsoon As El Niño Strengthens, Threatening Kharif Crops

El Niño is projected to intensify during the coming months, the World Meteorological Organization says, increasing the likelihood of extreme weather such as heavy floods in coastal zones and drought in interior regions across South Asia.

IMD has released a below‑normal monsoon outlook for 2026, estimating total rainfall at roughly 95 percent of the long‑term average, with several interior districts expected to receive only about 80 percent, raising concerns of water stress for agriculture.

Kharif farmers now face a decisive window as the Monsoon Tracker shows a sharp regional split; western and central states may see deficient rains while the northeast and coastal belts could still get adequate moisture, forcing many to adjust sowing schedules or rely on irrigation.

Economists caution that the below‑normal monsoon could trim crop yields, lift food price inflation by 2‑3 percent and strain government efforts to meet kharif production targets for 2026‑27, prompting calls for expanded buffer stocks and weather‑insurance schemes.