India Faces Weak Monsoon as Super El Niño Drives 15 Percent Rainfall Deficit

IMD says the southwest monsoon outlook for 2026 shows a 15% rainfall deficit, with weakened rain winds expected to withdraw by mid‑September, threatening reservoir levels and raising concerns over water supply for agriculture and cities.

Super El Niño conditions intensify, prompting the department to label the season as “Super” and warning that several western and central states could experience severe drought while eastern coastal areas may see localized flooding, jeopardizing sowing schedules and livelihoods.

Rainfall Revival appears possible as a new low‑pressure system is tracking northward in early September, offering a chance to reduce the deficit if it persists over the next two weeks and delivers sufficient moisture to the core monsoon belt.

Agriculture Ministry plans to activate emergency irrigation schemes and crop insurance measures in the most affected districts, aiming to mitigate potential losses for millions of farmers.