IMD Forecasts 90% of Normal Monsoon Rainfall for 2026 Across India

IMD forecast below‑normal rainfall, estimating only about 90 % of the normal monsoon total for August and September, and notes higher temperatures across the country, which could aggravate water stress and increase evaporation rates.

Monsoon is projected to stay active for the next two weeks as Indian Ocean signals shift, but overall precipitation is expected to fall short of the 2025 average, raising concerns for farmers. This shift is linked to changes in sea surface temperatures and atmospheric circulation patterns.

El Niño is predicted to intensify in 2026, with IMD warning that a strong El Niño could trigger a weak monsoon, echoing past droughts that hit India in the early 2000s. The warning follows studies that link El Niño events to reduced rainfall and higher drought risk in the subcontinent.

Skymet confirms the trend, forecasting below‑normal rainfall for the region and urging authorities to prepare for reduced water availability and potential crop losses. Officials are calling for enhanced irrigation planning and reservoir management to mitigate the impact on agriculture.