India Cuts Monsoon Forecast to 90 Percent of Normal Amid Intensifying El Niño

IMD announced a below‑normal monsoon outlook for 2026, projecting total rainfall at roughly 90% of the long‑period average, with some forecasts narrowing to 95% of normal, marking a significant shortfall from the typical 100% baseline.

El Niño warming in the Pacific is expected to intensify, raising the likelihood of a weak monsoon and creating a nationwide rainfall deficit estimated at 13%, according to climate scientists monitoring the 2026 season.

Agriculture Ministry warned that the reduced precipitation could jeopardize sowing of kharif staples such as rice and cotton, potentially trimming yields by up to 20% in high‑risk states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh.

Farmers and regional authorities are being urged to implement drought‑mitigation strategies, including micro‑irrigation, rainwater harvesting, and early‑warning alerts, as experts cite an expanding drought risk across central and western India despite isolated heavy‑rain pockets.