India Confronts Driest Monsoon Since 2009 as El Niño Triggers 15% Rainfall Deficit

India faces its driest monsoon since 2009, with forecasts showing a 15% shortfall in rainfall across central and southern agricultural zones, threatening rice, wheat and pulse production, according to Reuters analysis of the 2026 El Niño event.

El Niño is approaching record strength, prompting meteorologists to warn that the warming of Pacific waters could suppress Indian monsoon circulation; some experts suggest the Indian Ocean may partially blunt the impact but uncertainties remain.

Farmers in states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh are already reporting delayed sowing, and officials warn the shortfall could cut wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane yields by several percent, tightening food supplies and farm incomes.

Food prices may rise as the government prepares emergency measures, including possible price caps on staples and expanded public distribution, while analysts project inflation pressures could push rice and wheat costs upward by up to 5% if rains do not improve.