India Meteorological Department Forecasts Below‑Normal Monsoon for 2026 Season, Raising Agricultural Concerns

India Meteorological Department says the southwest monsoon will be below normal, citing its updated long‑range forecast that projects reduced rainfall across central and peninsular regions from June through September this season.

South Asia is expected to receive below‑average monsoon rainfall, the World Meteorological Organization reports, indicating a broader regional drying trend that falls short of the 1961‑2020 climatology and could intensify water stress in river basins.

Farmers confront heightened risk as the weaker monsoon pushes reliance onto winter crops; while total cultivated acreage holds steady, analysts note that soil moisture levels are already below optimal thresholds, which may cut yields and raise food‑price volatility.

Economists caution that reduced rainfall could strain India's agrarian economy, potentially slowing overall growth and prompting policy makers to consider supplemental irrigation, increased credit facilities, and additional budget allocations for water‑management projects in vulnerable regions.