India Meteorological Department Cuts Monsoon Forecast as El Niño Strengthens

India Meteorological Department reports the monsoon rain band will begin withdrawing around mid‑September, with total seasonal rainfall still 15 percent below normal. The department cut its overall forecast to 90 percent of long‑term average, citing weaker rain winds.

El Niño is expected to strengthen, with the International Research Institute assigning a 69 percent chance of a historic event and the World Meteorological Organization warning of a dry summer and heightened extreme‑weather risk across South Asia.

Regional Disparities emerge as several states report flood‑risk from intense downpours, while neighboring areas face drought conditions, a pattern underscored by recent analyses of uneven monsoon distribution and its impact on water reservoirs.

Agricultural Outlook warns the rain deficit could slash staple crop yields, prompting the government to consider supplemental irrigation, drought‑relief measures and possible emergency funding to safeguard food security and farmer incomes.