India Meteorological Department Lowers 2026 Monsoon Forecast Amid Strong El Niño Impact

IMD lowered its 2026 monsoon rainfall forecast for India, citing a strong El Niño that is expected to suppress rainfall across the subcontinent. The new estimate is below the previous normal range.

Kerala is specifically highlighted in the forecast as likely to receive a weak monsoon, with rainfall projections falling short of the 2025 average, according to The New Indian Express.

El Niño is identified as the main driver behind the downgrade, with climate models showing a 40% reduction in June rainfall for parts of India, a trend that could affect agriculture and water security.

Impact on farmers and water resources is significant; lower monsoon rainfall may lead to crop stress and increased demand for irrigation, prompting government agencies to prepare contingency plans.

Forecast agencies are monitoring the situation closely, with the Indian Meteorological Department urging farmers to adopt water‑saving practices and plan for potential shortages.