India’s Monsoon Forecast Drops to 90 Percent of Average, Raising Crop Risk

IMD projects the monsoon for the core August‑September period to be below normal, estimating total rainfall at roughly 90 % of the long‑period average and highlighting uneven distribution across the north‑west and central zones.

El Nino remains the dominant climate driver, with the current episode ranked as the strongest since 1950, prompting the agency to assign a 60 % probability of a rainfall deficit that could strain reservoirs and groundwater supplies.

Kharif farmers in major rice‑growing states such as Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh depend on timely monsoon rains; the lowered forecast raises concerns of reduced grain yields, higher input costs, and the need for emergency irrigation schemes.

Agricultural analysts warn that a shortfall of this magnitude could push staple food prices upward, squeeze rural household incomes, and force the central government to consider measures such as crop insurance expansion and targeted water‑release from reservoirs.