India’s Monsoon Forecast Drops to 90 Percent Raising Drought and Flood Concerns

India expects its summer monsoon to be the weakest in almost twenty years, with the India Meteorological Department lowering the rainfall forecast to about 90% of normal, indicating a shortfall of roughly 15 percent and raising concerns for reservoir levels and agricultural output.

World Meteorological Organization confirmed that the El Niño pattern will persist until early 2027, warning that its amplification this season raises the probability of extreme weather events across South Asia, including heightened drought risk in already water‑stressed zones.

Monsoon rains are projected to arrive later than usual and begin retreating around September 19, creating a pronounced regional split where coastal states such as Kerala anticipate flood risk while central and northern districts confront severe rain deficits, complicating water‑management plans.

Farmers in rain‑dependent regions face reduced sowing windows and potential crop loss, prompting calls for water‑conservation measures and contingency planning from state governments, as the delayed and uneven monsoon heightens uncertainty for the upcoming planting season.