Economy: Analysts warn that the rainfall shortfall could push inflation higher, strain rural incomes,

IMD forecast: 13% below normal rainfall across India, with a 20% deficit in major agricultural states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh, citing a strong El Niño that suppresses monsoon clouds. This deficit is expected to persist through the monsoon season.

El Niño: The global climate anomaly reduces sea‑surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean, limiting moisture transport and delaying monsoon onset, which results in fewer rain showers and higher temperatures across the subcontinent. This pattern also increases the risk of heatwaves.

Agriculture: Farmers in drought‑prone districts report crop stress, with early‑season rice and wheat showing reduced yields; the government has announced emergency irrigation support and anticipates a rise in staple food prices. Support includes subsidies for water pumps and seed.

Economy: Analysts warn that the rainfall shortfall could push inflation higher, strain rural incomes,