India Forecasts 90% of Normal Monsoon Rainfall in 2026 Amid El Niño Uncertainty

IMD forecasts that India may receive only 90% of the normal monsoon rainfall in 2026, a drop from the 11‑year average. The agency warns that the weaker monsoon could strain water supplies and agriculture.

El Niño intensification, noted by IMD, is expected to heighten weather volatility, increasing the likelihood of below‑normal rains in some regions while causing heavy rainfall in others. The phenomenon adds uncertainty to seasonal planning.

Satellite imagery from the Indian Space Research Organisation reveals extensive cloud cover over 80% of the country, confirming the monsoon’s arrival. However, the images also show uneven distribution, with some districts experiencing heavier rainfall than others.

Government agencies have flagged 111 districts as vulnerable to flooding or drought, prompting the deployment of early warning systems and emergency response teams. The list aims to mitigate potential damage from the unpredictable monsoon.