Global Warming Threatens Rice Harvests More Than Models Predict, Study Finds

**Study – Researchers published a new analysis showing that rising temperatures reduce rice yields more sharply than existing crop models estimate, suggesting current forecasts of future food supply may be overly optimistic and highlighting a gap in climate impact forecasting.

**Crop Models – Current models, which guide agricultural policy, assume a modest yield drop per degree Celsius, but the study finds actual losses could be up to double that rate in major rice‑growing regions, raising concerns for national food security plans.

**Rice Farmers – The report warns that millions of smallholder farmers in Asia could face severe income loss, as staple rice production may fall below the levels needed to feed growing populations, potentially triggering migration and heightened poverty in vulnerable communities.

**Policy Makers – Experts urge immediate revision of climate‑adaptation strategies, calling for investment in heat‑tolerant rice varieties, expanded irrigation infrastructure, and revised forecasting tools to protect food security and support farmers as temperatures continue to rise.