India Monsoon 2026 Faces 13% Rainfall Deficit Amid El Niño Conditions

India faces a 13% rainfall deficit in the 2026 monsoon season, according to the Indian Meteorological Department, which warns that the season is starting under an El Niño influence that typically suppresses precipitation.

IMD forecasts below‑normal rainfall across most of the country, with some regions receiving only 70‑80% of the average September totals, while others experience localized flooding due to shifting weather troughs.

Monsoon impacts have already claimed more than 100 lives since July, as heavy rains in the northeast and sudden dry spells in the south have created hazardous conditions for farmers and commuters.

El Niño is expected to intensify the uneven distribution of rain, raising concerns about food security, inflation, and the risk of drought in vulnerable states, prompting authorities to issue early warnings and prepare relief measures.