India Faces Record Weak Monsoon as El Niño Threatens Food Prices and Crop Yields

El Niño – A strong El Niño developing in the Pacific is expected to suppress the Indian summer monsoon, with the India Meteorological Department warning of a record‑weak rainfall season that could be the lowest in decades.

Skymet – Private forecaster Skymet predicts below‑normal rains across central and southern states, flagging a high probability of drought in Maharashtra and Kerala and noting that the monsoon cloud band may stall at 10,000 km, reducing overall precipitation by up to 15 percent.

Food Prices – Analysts say the weak monsoon and rising global oil costs create a “double threat” to food inflation, potentially pushing staple grain prices up 5‑7 percent and tightening household budgets in a country already facing price pressures.

Government – The Ministry of Agriculture has urged states to accelerate water‑conservation projects and announced emergency credit for small farmers, aiming to offset the projected 12 percent drop in kharif sowing area and safeguard the upcoming wheat harvest.