India's Monsoon Forecast Revised to 90% of LPA, 60% Chance of Deficient Rainfall

India expects below‑normal September rains after a weak August, Reuters reports, with rainfall projected to fall 15% below the long‑term average, raising concerns for the upcoming harvest season and potential water shortages.

IMD revised the 2026 monsoon forecast to 90% of the long‑term average (LPA), Down To Earth notes, indicating that the western coastal belt and the Indo‑Gangetic plains may receive only 70‑80% of typical rainfall.

IMD warns a 60% chance of deficient rainfall and heatwaves, stressing that such conditions could strain irrigation systems, reduce groundwater recharge, increase crop stress, and raise temperatures above 40°C in some regions, the agency said.

IMD released the updated forecast on 15 September 2026, urging farmers and water‑management authorities to prepare for potential droughts, the agency added, and to adjust planting schedules, adopt drought‑tolerant varieties, and secure water‑storage infrastructure.